Why do famous investors study and write about history?

One investment philosophy is that short-term fluctuations are noise, while long-term fluctuations can be explained by historical structure.

Short-term price fluctuations are fundamentally unpredictable because they are influenced by random factors such as political events, scandals, and market sentiment.

Decadal changes in asset prices and industry structure, on the other hand, can largely be explained by historically recurring structural factors such as credit cycles, technological innovation, demographic shifts, and the rise and fall of hegemonic powers.

Jim Rogers is considered an exemplary investor who invests in “whole countries” based on historical, political, philosophical, and economic factors. He determines which countries and industries to invest in based on long-term macro-historical context.

Ray Dalio is considered a prime example of quantifying vast amounts of historical data (such as the rise and fall of empires and long-term debt cycles), converting them into patterns, and applying them to macro investing.

Reading and writing history books equips long-term investors with exceptional risk awareness and scenario design skills, allowing them to understand the recurring nature of human behavior and the cyclical shifts in institutions and hegemony—things that are difficult to understand through mathematical models and quantitative analysis alone.

Business and Entrepreneurship Concepts

This worldview has given rise to the following business and product concepts:

Historical Macroeconomic Investment Research Reports

We offer paid macroeconomic reports and briefings to investors on systematic historical cycles (e.g., credit bubbles, hegemonic shifts, demographic dividends).

We offer a “Historical Analogy” report service that combines “similar historical cases” with “current indicators” across emerging markets and themes.

“Historical Context” Investment Academy/School

In addition to our CFA/Technical courses, this online course and community aims to develop “investors who can interpret history” (e.g., the rise and fall of empires, long-term debt cycles, and the history of technological innovation).

This course allows students to create their own “Market History Notebook.”

Historical Data SaaS for Investors

A dashboard tool that visualizes long-term data such as interest rates, inflation, debt, military conflicts, and hegemony indices, showing similarities with historical periods.

A B2B service that automatically calculates Robertson’s “Country Macro Score” from a historical perspective to support asset allocation.

“Industry Historical Intelligence” for Founders and Managers

We offer research and workshops for entrepreneurs that interpret the century-old development history of specific industries and their development trends over the next 10 years (e.g., the history of the artificial intelligence, biotechnology, semiconductor, and communications industries).

We provide due diligence support services for venture capital (VC) and corporate venture capital (CVC) firms, analyzing “valuation cycles in specific themes” from a historical perspective.

Media & Publishing Business

We offer media, books, and podcast series that combine the perspectives of “history written by investors” and “markets written by historians.”